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It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

His opener originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.